We are in the midst of an east-based La Niña that is stretching throughout the ENSO basin, but still focused on the Eastern end of the Pacific. However, despite the westerly QBO, we have a weak and likely to remain, weak PV which should help increase chances for blocking and the southward discharge of polar air. So don’t use these outlooks to make important decisions. Since winter 2017-18, the PV has been too strong to support any such repeat in 2019 or 2020. Edited June 29, 2020 by Gavin P. 10 6 Link to post Share on other sites. A less favourable more maritime pattern in January, with a +NAO, a weaker winter if it remains in control. Normally about half- the ski areas open in Europe until the winter starts are in Austria with glaciers opening in September and October and that was the case this year too. Seasonal models and recent climatology suggest a milder than average season is favoured. Follow me on Twitter @longrangesnow and subscribe to my email list by clicking on the tab on the main header above, View all posts by Long Term Forecast Center. United Kingdom. Let’s see what this winter brings as solar minimums are meant to increase -AO/NAO’s, SSWE’s and harsher winters. February? CFSv2 monthly goes straight to a textbook +AO/NAO January. Without further ado, here is a sneak peak at our famous long-range weather predictions from The 2021 Old Farmer’s Almanac edition—including the winter maps for all of the U.S. and Canada. The maps highlight the areas which are expected to be colder/warmer and dryer/wetter (than normal) over Europe and Mediterranean countries, with an obvious linkage to potentially higher forest fire danger. We are back to the same solar state/cycle/minimum as we close 2020 as we were in December 2009. These two aspects straight away make this year very different to last. Welcome to my 11th annual winter forecast for Europe. United States - Alaska - Canada - Europe. Weather. The positive IOD and MJO stuck in phases 6 and 7 last autumn and winter is likely one of the greatest contributors to the polar vortex remaining strong throughout last winter. We observed a record -AO/NAO during winter 2009-10. 2020-21 Winter. Long-range weather forecasts for 2020/21 are suggesting this winter will be rather milder and warmer in Central Europe. Economic forecasts Autumn 2020 Economic Forecast Economic activity in Europe suffered a severe shock in the first half of the year and rebounded strongly in the third quarter as containment measures were gradually lifted. ... One thing to note about the Farmers' Almanac forecast, it … UK winter 2020-21 Update 2 issued on 19th October 2020 … Based on the current -AO/NAO as we entered December’s opening week, it looks like the month overall should average at or slightly below average for the UK, France, Iberia and possibly into central parts of Europe. Thought I would share the GWV winter 2020/21 NAO Forecast with you all. Major cold outbreaks should move into the western U.S. and set up a huge fight over the Heartland (storms). Ski areas in the US are offering a “very different” winter 2020-21. Wetter im Winter 2020/21 in Deutschland Das Langfristmodell des amerikanischen Wetterdienstes National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) sah den diesjährigen Winter vor wenigen Wochen noch viel zu warm. The coldest periods are forecast to be in December and the middle of February. We will discuss the large-scale drivers of the weather this winter and what impact this may have on the European energy markets. The NASA GMAO forecast for around Christmas is for lower than average sea ice in the Barents-Kara Sea Ice region, which is more likely to induce a -AO/-NAO and to help to disturb the stratospheric vortex. by: Jim Spencer. These outlooks is meant to be interesting information, that can help to see what the season would be like. Countdown to the Big Game! Uncertainty increases sharply after December 201… For the UK, an average to slightly above average snow season focused in a colder December and February. In fairness to the solar minimum theory, the 2-3 winters prior to the previous minimum were some of our warmest and stormiest (2006-07, 2007-08 and 2008-09) like last year. And of course warmer and drier for much of Europe, the best falls for the Alps based on this towards the West. Also IRI expects cool 2020/21 winter. Dafür gibt der Winter im neuen Jahr so richtig Gas. A westerly QBO (winds blowing west to east within the stratosphere) tends to maintain a stronger than normal polar vortex. notice the model has it hooking up with the Scandinavia block over Greenland. However, if you compare the above SST chart from Nov 12th vs Nov 25th below, there appears to be some cooling showing up along the south coast of Alaska thanks to a strong jet stream and storminess over the region. It was a winter of frequent and often big snowfalls and penetrating frosts. Warmer than average for much of Scandinavia and Eastern Europe from Italy, Greece and Turkey. Winter Weather Forecast 2021 from The Old Farmer’s Almanac Light Winter for Many, Colder in the West. During September and October, as the sun’s angle and strength lowered and now remains below the horizon, so a new tropospheric and stratospheric polar vortex was born. If you love the cold of winter, you’re going to love our forecast if you live in the northern half of the country. 2020-21 Winter outlook leans warm and dry across southern U.S. Every year, folks ask us … what’s the winter forecast? Written by Mark Vogan on December 7, 2020 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments. It will alter the jet stream patterns over... A stratospheric Polar Vortex has now emerged above the Arctic Circle. The Winter season 2020/2021 will be under the spell of a strong La Nina cycle, emerging in the tropical Pacific ocean. But this has left in its wake a European ridge. I know that a number of the drivers, particularly QBO and the Atlantic opposes this look. We are looking at a descending positive/westerly QBO, that tends to have an effect at avoiding stratospheric warmings. Welcome to my 10th annual winter forecast for Europe. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its full forecast for the 2020-2021 winter season, and it’s not as bad as you might expect.. Here’s some of the highlights from this coming winter:. Without further ado, here is a sneak peak at our famous long-range weather predictions from The 2021 Old Farmer’s Almanac edition—including the winter maps for all of the U.S. and Canada. Video and written forecasts covering 1 to 90 day timescales. CFSv2 FORECAST FOR DECEMBER-FEBRUARY 2020-21, MET OFFICE FORECAST FOR DECEMBER-FEBRUARY 2020-21, JAMSTEC FORECAST FOR DECEMBER-FEBRUARY 2020-21. Posted: Oct 16, 2020 / 03:47 PM CDT / Updated: Oct 16, 2020 / 03:47 PM CDT. Greenland high and Atlantic trough, and therefore a rough -NAO setup in the Atlantic. November saw a large increase of snowfall extent across Eurasia, and the resulting impact of that has been the strengthening of the Siberian High. Livestream Replays Sunday Livestream (31/01/21) By Chris Dolce October 15, 2020 . This has proven to be quite unfavorable for North Atlantic/Greenland blocking and cold over Western Europe. Welcome to my 11th annual winter forecast for Europe. Winter Weather Forecast 2021 from The Old Farmer’s Almanac Light Winter for Many, Colder in the West. Winter 2019/20 weather, Long range forecast signals issued on September 7th 2020. This increases ozone in the SPV during the winter, which increases the chance of a SSW. Our humble moderate Nina (east-based to basinwide) analog shows: I see an average to slightly above average chance for a SSW, most likely in January: Taking a look at the modelling for the stratosphere this season, January looks like the most interesting month for potential stratospheric disruptions on both EC and UKMO, with EC the more enthusiastic option. The European Conservative. Cold air … There’s a much greater potential for spells featuring high latitude blocking, especially over the Arctic (-AO). As a result, autumn was warm and wet for the UK and Western Europe with a firmly +AO/NAO. I expect a stronger than normal BDC over the winter. MJO expected to enter cold phases as SSWE causes vortex split! European Winter Forecast 2020-21. Welcome to my 11th annual winter forecast for Europe. $12.25 Regular Price. Jan-Mar and Feb-Apr become milder than average across western Europe. The images shown are examples of a prior prediction. THE COLD AND SNOWY SIDE. The last SSWE occurred in February 2018 which led to the infamous ‘Beast from the East’. A mild-moderate ridge pattern for SE Europe. This is reflected by both the NMME ensemble (below) and the Met Office ensemble, although the Met Office ensemble gives a higher probability of the ENSO state remaining weakly positive. Modelling sees the continuation of weaker zonal winds at 10hpa (upper stratosphere) well into winter. All thoughts are here mine alone and of no one's input. Brewer Dobson Circulation is stronger than normal in both of the NH and SH subtropics as well as over the tropics this month. SHARE. Forecasts are mostly going for a weakly positive ENSO state early in the season, followed by a shift towards near-neutral ENSO towards the end of the season. Issue Number 18 . Weaker zonal winds circling the PV make for a weaker jet stream at 40,000ft and a more vulnerable PV. This was a complex one, so I appreciate the support for the blog! Schon jetzt geistern unseriöse Winterprognosen durchs Netz die uns sagen wollen, wie und wo genau Hochs und Tiefs im Winter positioniert sind und … English (375.7 KB - PDF) Download PDF - 375.7 KB. Change ), You are commenting using your Google account. In this forecast, the conclusions drawn for the upcoming 90-day meteorological winter period are based on current oceanic and atmospheric drivers and my understanding of their potential influence they may have. Weather forecasts updated daily by Gavin Partridge. English (1.3 MB - PDF) Download PDF - 1.3 MB. Same as the last few outlooks, basically we are still in a solar minimum, which in theory helps a negative Arctic Oscillation. There’s a much greater potential for spells featuring high latitude blocking, especially over the Arctic (-AO). The winter will be mostly mild. Northern Alps to receive an average to slightly above average season, focused towards the middle of winter. Explore dynamic updates of … A sort of -NAO set-up with Azores troughing. Thanks to a cold front ... Read More, Following the snowiest December on record with at least 183cm accumulating through the month, January opened with further record snowfall ... Read More, Mark Vogan’s 2020-21 Winter Prediction For Europe, Shetland Observes Coldest Night Since 2013, Beijing Shivers Coldest Temperature Since 1966, Lienz, Austria Observes Record Snow Followed By Coldest Temps Since 1987. It is important to make it clear that just because we have a Nina in the oceans, this does not necessarily have to translate to the atmosphere. If so, you’d expect another strong -AO/NAO this year or next. Is the Farmers Almanac 2020-21 preparing us for a bout of global cooling? Over the last 3 months, the waters have continued to cool across most of the equatorial Pacific while waters in the North Pacific, particularly south of Alaska, have warmed. Final Winter 2020-21 Forecast 1 month ago November 25, 2020. Save 25% on all subscriptions - Stay totally up to date with the weather this winter. Seasonal outlooks tend to have bias and errors, due to the fact that these forecasts are so far out. In this forecast, the conclusions drawn for the upcoming 90-day meteorological winter period are based on current oceanic and atmospheric drivers and my understanding of their … ( Log Out / Winter 2020-21 Outlook: Cold December Could Be Followed by Mild Conditions. Description of the Product. In the weather world, Winter begins on December 1st and lasts until we jump into Spring on March 1st. By Chris Dolce ... February's forecast also calls for mild … Winter 2019/20 weather, Long range forecast signals issued on September 7th 2020. UK winter 2020-21 Update 2 issued on 19th October 2020 Berkhamsted railway station in the snow At a Glance . Winter 2020-21 U.S. Drought Outlook: Widespread, ongoing drought is currently in place across the western half of the continental U.S. as a result of the weak Southwest summer monsoon season and near-record-high temperatures. I can only hope that this La Nina has the ability to turn down earth’s climatic thermostat. Don’t worry though as here’s our winter 2020-21 forecast … As you can see above, the model hold on to the Scandinavian block through the festive period. The current westerly QBO was supposed to flip easterly and that flip failed and so on the face of it, a westerly QBO goes against the grain when it comes to ‘weak PV’s’ and chance for a sudden stratospheric warming event (SSWE). Scandinavian/Barents-Kara ridging dominance. Posted By: Chad Evans . Who wins, remains to be seen. Winter 2020. And as we can see a certain effect on the European climate: The general effects shown by the analog on the right: So overall not very good for snowfall for either the UK or Europe. Updated: Oct 4, 2020 2:14 PM . NOAA's CPC Winter 2020-21 Outlook for the Upper Mississippi River Valley Released: October 15, 2020 Updated: November 19, 2020 Bottom Line for the Local Area... NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast for the upcoming winter months of December-February: Temperatures: Equal chances of warmer-than-normal, near-normal, and colder-than … ( Log Out / Of course, pinpointing any specific pattern several weeks or months ahead is near impossible but we can provide potential trends and likelihoods. REFERRAL PROGRAM . Agenda: A technical overview on the teleconnections expected to have an influence this winter… If this occurs and in the right place then we could see the return to significantly cold, snowy end to January, beginning of February. This time it’s rotating through phases 8, 1, 2, 3 and 4, focusing enhanced convection and thunderstorm activity from Africa across the Indian Ocean to the Maritime continent. As you can see from the below AO/NAO charts which go back to 1950, since our last major cold winter (late 2010), the overall trend has been positive for both AO/NAO. For Europe, we see ridging dominating, reducing snowfall for much of the continent. This isn’t going to weigh heavily in the final analysis, but for reference here is the multi model ensemble provided by Copernicus. We have honed the winter forecast. Dry and warm for much of Central and Southern Europe. Thursday 15th October 2020 14:00 BST / 15:00 CEST / 16:00 EEST. Purple areas show where the trade winds were stronger than average, while orange areas indicate weaker than average. Southern Alps to get an average to slightly above average season. As can be seen in the below chart, while the IOD rocketed to record positive during autumn 2019, the same period this year has been slightly negative and that is having a very different feedback to the atmosphere. December’s +EAMTs and amplified pattern could help to amplify a stratospheric disruption down the road. Solar minimum induced? Europe. Phase 3 MJO + 10 days promotes a +NAO (good for Northern Alps snowfall, bad for Southern Alps/Europe and UK) and Phase 6 MJO + 10 days promotes a -NAO (basically the reverse). The GWO has made it clear that it is at least for December more interested in the potential to see a counter to the oceanic Nina state. I truly believed the the 2009-10 and first part of 2010-11 happened as a direct consequence to the solar minimum. #RUNITBACK. Winter 2020 Economic Forecast … Winter has arrived and the first long-range weather forecasts for 2020/21 are appearing. However, Severe Weather Europe (SWE) has published its winter forecast for 2020/21 by using major weather models. BUT, I expect a 2nd -AO/NAO spell, perhaps due to a mid to late January split or collapse of the PV (SSWE). During particularly strong La Nina’s, Eastern North America and Western Europe tend to be mild while colder over Western North America and Eurasia. The more fluid MJO this year should have greater influence on the PV and there is greater chance of warm pools from the low to mid latitudes penetrating north into the high latitudes (high latitude blocking) forcing polar air into the mid latitudes. Between now and the release of our final winter forecast … I think it’s probably also true to say that we’re overdue another -AO/NAO winter. But I am interested in the prospect of a SSW later in the winter probably in January with its impacts felt in February. Predicting a SSWE months or even weeks in advance is very difficult. ADS. Our long-range forecast is calling for a cold winter with normal to below-normal temperatures in areas from the Great Lakes and Midwest, westward through the Northern and Central Plains, and Rockies. 2009-10 was a true old fashioned winter and a winter which will be firmly entrenched in my mind forever. There’s enough high latitude blocking extending from Scandinavia and Ural Mountains to force polar air south but the Atlantic isn’t shutting down so cold and unsettled/stormy is likely to dominate. But the potential fluidity of the tropical and extratropical state and possibility for stratospheric disruption shows me at least that it won’t be a entirely awful season for Europe. The maps highlight the areas which are expected to … As seen in the below SSTA chart, the current and already mature La Nina stands out. Last Winter El Nino was in control. Last message: IRI continues to expect a rather supercooled winter 2020/21 in Central Europe with slightly more precipitation than average. 13 February 2020. However, the Atlantic will attempt to keep firing lows east towards the UK and so we have an atmospheric fight on the cards. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has released weather maps that attempt to forecast weather for the 2020 – 2021 winter. Old Farmer's Almanac Winter 2020-2021 Forecast and Predictions Are In Rebecca Norris 8/19/2020. Before I discuss my 2020-21 forecast, I want to touch on the solar cycle as NASA declared the commencement of cycle 25 at the close of 2019, start of 2020. Change ). ... Winter 2020/21: Winter 2020/21 Forecast Read the written version here. But that being said, despite have supposedly the weakest sun in 200 years, why is our planet continuing to warm. 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